Goodbye Drought: Douglas County’s First Drought-Free Year Since 2019

Douglas County is “drought-free” for the first time since June 2019 according to the US Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu). The last several years have been fairly dry and rainfall levels have decreased noticeably during the winter when we receive most of our annual rainfall.

When most people think of drought they picture long hot summers with no rain but the real effect of drought is noticed during our winter months when there is a lack of rainfall during the normal rainy season. If groundwater is not adequately replenished and soil moisture conditions are low, the summer months are all the more arid and unbearable.

US Drought Monitor Conditions

None

D0 Abnormally Dry

D1 Moderate Drought

D2 Severe Drought

D3 Extreme Drought

D4 Exceptional Drought

For the second week of June over the last 5 years, the majority of Douglas County drought conditions have been None (2019), D2 (2020), D2-D3 (2021), D1-D3 (2022), D0-D1 (2023), and None (2024).

January 2024 was especially wet with 6.72" of rainfall for the month. That is higher than the 25-year average of 4.57" of rainfall in January. The previous two years in January have been lower than average with 2.68" (2022) and 2.53" (2023) of rainfall, respectively. These rainfall stats can be found online (weather.gov) from the NOAA Online Weather Data for Roseburg Regional Airport.

Even though we are currently no longer in a drought, weather can be unpredictable and it is a good idea to take advantage of these cooler, wet seasons to reduce wildfire fuels around your home and property. You can also build rainwater catchment systems, ponds, swales, and plant trees and shrubs that will help retain rainfall moisture when drought-like conditions return.

The Absorption Rate

The Absorption Rate is a measure of supply and demand. By taking the number of homes sold in a month and dividing it by the number on the market, you can find a percentage that determines how quickly homes sell. Traditionally, an absorption rate above 20% signals a seller’s market in which homes are sold quickly. An absorption rate below 15% is an indicator of a buyer’s market in which homes are not being sold as fast.

As you can observe from the below chart, the local market returned to more reasonable levels when mortgage rates increased in 2022. According to the data, we are still technically in a seller’s market which means the market is slightly in the seller’s favor. It may not seem this way since the insanely high levels of 2020 Q2 -2022 Q2 gave us the strongest seller’s market in over 25+ years.

Roseburg and Douglas County Real Estate (June 2024) Market Update

Comparing 2024 to 2023 over the last 12 months in Douglas County, the average sale price has decreased -1.03% from $347,992 to $344,410. In the same comparison, the median sale price has increased 0.63% from $315,000 to $317,000. Inventory decreased to 3.1 months in May. Average and median days on market (DOM) for sold properties over the last 12 months decreased slightly to 59 (AVG) and 29 (MED), respectively.

The Month Before: April 2024

A month earlier, comparing 2024 to 2023 over the previous 12 months, the average sale price had decreased 0.96% from $351,870 to $348,495. In the same comparison, the median sale price had increased 1.07% from $315,625 to $319,000.

Inventory stood at 3.3 months in April. Average and median days on market for sold properties over the last 12 months decreased slightly to 60 days and 31 days, respectively.