Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? Roseburg Buyers and 5% Rates
Real Estate Broker · Douglas County, OR
Coming into 2022, most experts projected mortgage rates would gradually increase and end the year in the high three-percent range. It is only April, and rates have already blown past those numbers - mortgage rates averaged five percent for the first time in over a decade. Through February, home prices, the number of showings, and the number of homes receiving multiple offers all saw a substantial increase, but much of the spike in mortgage rates occurred in March. Meanwhile in Douglas County the average sale price rose 16.0% to $332,000 and inventory fell to 1.3 months.
There’s never been a truer statement regarding forecasting mortgage rates than the one offered last year by Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is: Don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, mortgage rates (if you’re a real estate economist), because you will always invariably be wrong.”
Coming into this year, most experts projected mortgage rates would gradually increase and end 2022 in the high three-percent range. It’s only April, and rates have already blown past those numbers.
“This last week, mortgage rates averaged five percent for the first time in over a decade,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As Americans contend with historically high inflation, the combination of rising mortgage rates, elevated home prices and tight inventory are making the pursuit of homeownership the most expensive in a generation.”
Through February, home prices, the number of showings, and the number of homes receiving multiple offers all saw a substantial increase. However, much of the spike in mortgage rates occurred in March. We will not know the true impact of the increase in mortgage rates until the March housing numbers become available in early May.
Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, recently put rising rates into context:
“Historically low mortgage rates and higher wages helped offset rising home prices over the past few years, but as home prices continue to soar and interest rates approach five percent on a 30-year fixed rate loan, more consumers are going to struggle to find a property they can comfortably afford.”
Related Reading
Roseburg and Douglas County Real Estate (April 2022) Market Update
Comparing 2022 to 2021 through the previous 12 months the average sale price has increased 16.0% from $286,200 to $332,000. In the same comparison, the median sale price has increased 17.3% from $257,500 to $302,000. Inventory decreased to 1.3 months in March. Total market time decreased to 38 days.
Housing Inventory
Months of Supply · 12-Month Rolling Average
Average Sales Price
12-Month Rolling Average · Douglas County
Housing Inventory is months of supply (active listings ÷ monthly sales). A balanced market is ~6 months. Days on Market (DOM) is days from listing to accepted offer. Absorption Rate is the percentage of inventory sold per month. Balanced = 15-20%.